Map of the day - History strikes back

This is the most extraordinary map, courtesy of the superb strangemaps site. It shows Poland's last legislative election results overlayed onto the old border between the Tsarist Russian Empire, and the German Empire. Those who live in what was the German Empire were far more likely to have voted for Donal Tusk's Civic Platform, whilst those who live in what was the Tsarist Empire were far more likely to have voted for the Kaczynskis' Law and Justice Party. The Ukrainian divide is well correlated to the borders of the Poland-Lithanianian Commonwealth. Those who voted for Yushchenko (in the west) live in the lands of the former Commonwealth, whilst those who voted for Yanukovych (in the east) did not. When borders disappear from a map it appears they hang around in people's cultural and political memories. Can anyone help to explain this incredible phenomenon?

Video of the day - yay, we're all in debt

Watch narcoleptic Fred Thompson explain the bailout. Its well worth watching.







Hat tip: Guido

Video of the day - Communist Christmas edition

Well, it made me chuckle.





Hat tip: Registan, which is an ace central asia blog.

Quick note for authoritarians, Greek rioters, and vulgar libertarians

Dear authoritarians, Greek rioters, and vulgar libertarians,

All three of you have misunderstood anarchism. This causes great problems. You authoritarians believe that with out the power of your Power, the would would become like Somalia. You Greek rioters think that nihilism and violence represents a genuine new order. It is not. The order against which you struggle perpetuates some form of violence against you. You are doing the same to others. Vulgar libertarians - you, who value property over life - view true Liberty, true Freedom from everything, the ultimate state of anarchy, as your own individualism. You wish to increase your own ego. How can this be anarchism? Not having your liberties infringed does not mean you are an isolated unite, ruling your roost. You are still part of systems greater than yourself: the natural environment, society, your community, your friends and family, the economy. It is not the mark of Freedom and Liberty to be removed from these things, for it is impossible. Ethics exist outside of market forces and outside of your own ego.

I advise all three groups to examine Gustav Landauer's statement of anarchism's most important components.

1. Anarchism is the absence of power (meaning hierarchy, and forced institutions).
2. Anarchism is of course not terrorism; it is to be achieved non violently.
3. Anarchism cannot only be egoistic individualism.

I hope you take this on board. Authoritarians, stop taring genuine anarchists as terrorists. Rioters masquerading as anarchists, stop allowing the authoritarians to do so. Vulgar libertarians, stop thinking that your own brilliance and Rights are the full expression of Mill, Locke, Paine, and Proudhon.

Still President George W Bush continues to make terrible policy

So its not as bad as we thought it'd be. Until Admiral Mullen's intervention and the NIE many people thought Bush would attack Iran after the November election but before President 44's inauguration (see graph below from intrade for what the betting market thought the probability of a strike on Iran by the US or Israel before the end of 2008). Instead, he buggering around with car bailouts (Obama would do this anyway) but also continuing to make a hash of Iran and nuclear policy.




His administration is intending to sign a nuclear cooperation agreement for civilian nuclear energy with the UAE before Bush leaves office. Why is this such a terrible idea? Firstly, one of the first steps of Obama, and therefore US foreign policy from next month onwards, will be to attempt to tackle the issue of nuclear proliferation. Obama is widely expected to sign up to the CTBT soon after taking office. So any Bush agreements concerning nuke policy is unhelpful. Furthermore, look where the UAE is on a map and consider the graph above.


That's right the UAE, for those of you whose geography is a bit iffy, is in the Persian gulf, sharing a maritime border with Iran. It is also thoroughly within the Iranian business sphere of influence. It makes negotiating Obama's task of negotiating with Iran (already no easy task) that much more difficult. The US would be providing nuclear technology to an undemocratic, illiberal middle eastern state which is a neighbour of Iran. This will not go down well in Tehran and may strengthen the Principlist group (ultra conservative - e.g. Ahmadinejad) in the coming Presidential elections. Not a wise move. He may only have 37 days, 14 hours to go, but he can still damage the next President's policies. Profoundly unhelpful.

Democracy? Who needs it? Hank Paulson edition

Hail the technocrat in chief! All hail the dictator of the economy! The world is his! His time is now! All praise be unto him!

Thank goodness we've got Hank Paulson. If he hadn't managed to force Congress to give him all that money and all that power without oversight then our great technocratic overlord would not be able to act in such a swift an decisive way. We don't need Congress. We have Paulson. He can change his mind whenever he wants - hey, facts change. His complete analysis and strategy can alter month to month - but hey, no one predicted any of these problems. Our hero must now act to save Detroit. Only he, single handedly, can save the jobs, healthcare, and pensions of 2 million Americans. The man is a saint. In times of crisis, and with leaders like this, democracy is too cumbersome to operate properly. Of course, our economic Emperor still pays lip service to democracy. He still tries to get elected representatives to implement his plans for the auto-bailout. But if they "fail to act", don't fear, Paulson is here. People may say its a bad idea, but who are people compared to the bald might of Paulson? Representatives and Senators may say the bail out isn't quite right, but how can mere Senators even look towards Paulson's glorious visage? People of the world unite around the economic Emperor - He has a world to win!

And that, Ladies and Gents, is the simple fact. All pretensions there were to US economic policy being in same small way democratic, allowing people's representatives to have a say, have vanished. Poof. They're gone. That's what happens if you give someone so much power. But hey, desperate times and all that.....

The link between Tony Blair and Omar al-Bashir

Cast your mind back to the 2005 General election. Remember the slogans the parties brought out. "Are you thinking what we're thinking" ('fraid not), "the real alternative" (if only), and my personal favourite for its assault on the English language, "forward not back". "Forward not back" is not even English. Its so stupid it makes your eyes bleed. Well, Sudan's President and international pariah (except in China and some Arab states) appears to have the same PR consultant as New Labour. Look at the poster in the background of the above photo. The slogan reads "no backward but forward". As true progressive leaders with a knack of appealing to the public, it is unsurprising that Blair and al-Bashir should adopt precicely the same language. This great appeal has nothing to do with mastery of language but body language, emoting, and other forms of trickery. Indeed, both phrases are cackhandedly put together, but in their own special way. Blair's PR guru forgets the 'ward' in "backward" and al-Bashir's the 'T' in "not". Oh well both men have bigger things to worry about, quite a few people want to put them in the Hague. I should probably cut them some slack.


Perhaps NuZanuLab have affinities to some other delightful sister parties around the world other than the National Congress Party. We can but hope.

Hat tip: The economist for the Sudanese photo

Disclaimer: I'm taking the piss, just in case somebody somehow doesn't understand this and attempts to take me to task in the comments.

Its not just Blagojevich who might be corrupt, the whole system is

Whilst we all get very upset, shocked, appalled, and so on at the disgraceful nature of Governor Blagojevich's alleged attempts to sell Obama's Senate seat, we don't bat an eyelid at massive corruption involving the State that goes on everyday. There is a greater, much greater scandal a foot. When the US Federal government is going to build something, or have an IT project, or do whatever it is it does, it needs professionals. It may need archetects, builders, computer geeks etc. Now, how do people who want the State as their client go about winning them over? You'd hope there'd be an open, transparent, and accountable tendering process, wouldn't you? Well that would be hoping for too much. In 2007 only 33% of Federal contracts were awarded after an open competition. 33%. That means that fully two thirds of Federal contracts were awarded without due process. This means, for one reason of another, the tax payer is being shafted two thirds of the time and somebody else is benefitting. This is an utter disgrace. This is the Government not working for the people but for self, or other interests. This is the problem of large scale government expenditure without appropriate accountability. We need new mechanisms to force open competition for Goverment contracts. Its not very sexy. Its very nuts and bolts. But it is absolutely vital. Otherwise the taxpayer (generally not that rich) is being taken for a ride by either those s/he elects (generally rich) and the contractors (almost certainly rich). This effectively ammounts to theft from the poor and the average members of our society to some of the richer ones. It is an outrage. All Federal contracts, or UK government contracts MUST be subject to a fully transparent and competitive tendering process. Those who prefer backrooms and quiet favours must be shown to do so and removed from office. Don't acquiess to this practice. If there is a project going on near you ask your local representative how the contract was won. Its right to ask questions. Its right to hold people to account.


P.S. Read one man's military industrial complex. It'll make your blood boil.

Two worrying bits of data

For all those worried that excessive Government debt + a falling pound + capital flight from our banks could push Britain towards an Iceland-style situation, Guido has a disturbing stat. McDonald's debt is rated as safer than UK government debt. UK Government debt credit default swap rates are higher than those of the fast food giant. This means the market feels Britain is more likely to go bush than Maccie Ds. Not cool.
The second stat, also courtesy of Mr Fawkes, is that US Treasury Bills are trading at negative yields. In other words, people are investing in them, knowing full well they'll lose (not very much) money. The confidence in markets is so low that people are willing to bank on a micro loser, to avoid large scale loses. Things aren't looking so bright.