For all those dedicated Iran watchers, IranCoverage has a interesting analysis of the spat which is being widely seen in the West as a sign of the blogging President severely losing power.
Wednesday, 23 January 2008
More on the clash between the Speaker and Ahmadinejad
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4 comments:
I'm never really sure what to make of these articles about Ahmadinejad's supposedly diminishing political clout. There are regular reports along these lines, but has anything serious come of it? Maybe Ahmadinejad, on the international scene, has been forced to tone it down somewhat, but I haven't read about any substantive policy changes that he has been forced to make as a result of such internal pressure.
Whilst the inner rumblings of Iranian politics are far easier to follow than the bulldog fights in the Kremlin or Hamas, it is still a very difficult task. Ahmedinejad had been very quiet until after the Pentagon released the video of the January 6th incident. Since then he was made a couple of robust statements. To offer my opinion, I believe there are two contradictory things happening to Ahmedinejad's political capital. In domestic affairs it clearly dropping. People were happy to put up with his disdain for inflation back in December 06 but now with Iran a net importer of oil, inflation high, growth low, and further sactions on their way some are clearly questioning his domestic policies and failure to deliver on his campaign promises. However, on the international stage and in terms of foreign policy, I do not see his capital as diminished. There contentious issue (nuclear power) is a consensus view among the FP elite of Iran. The debate is about how to go about getting it with Ahmedinejad thinking he can gain more with confrontation and the Larijani mind set arguing for more subterfuge. On this issue there is no chance of him being undercut in the near future. I wish I could read Farsi. Western media tends to be crap on Iran. It usually fails to get past stereotypes and scaremongering.
With regards to the nuclear issue, my understanding is that there is a fairly broad consensus amongst the Iranian elite in support of nuclear power. It's not just Ahmadinejad and other hard-liners. Rafsanjani, for example, wants a program as well -- he just doesn't want Tehran to do so in such an openly hostile way. (The same cannot be said about the Iranian populace which, in a poll done last summer, revealed that they'd give up a nuclear program in exchange for international recognition and aid.)
I agree that public support for Ahmadinejad appears to be down both amongst Iranians and amongst the country's elite. But Ahmadinejad is still getting things done. When Larijani was replaced recently, for example, his successor, Saeed Jalili, is very much of the president's mold.
So, I think there are attempts to curb the president's influence -- and he does appear to have been restricted to a certain extent -- but I don't see it as affecting Iranian policy to that great of an extent.
Here, here.
Jeb do you have a link to that poll you site? Otherwise, don't think I could agree more.
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