Friday, 30 May 2008

Britain "could talk to Al Qaeda"?


Now I'm certainly one for talking, most people who know me will be able to agree. I certainly like dialogue. I can see the evident benefits of the US having an open dialogue with Iran over a great number of issues. Yes we spoke to Gerry Adams, an elected MP. However, speaking to AQI is a little different I feel. We can talk to Iran because we have mutual interests, and can negotiate within the bounds of geo-politics. We could negotiate with the IRA because a peace process was possible and the thought patterns of the IRA were not too far removed from those of the British Government. Likewise the UK and the IRA had some mutual interests, providing the basis for talks. I cannot see what mutual interests Britain has with the AQI leadership. They can't, or won't, help us in Afghanistan and Waziristan. We can't/won't help them in taking down America. We do not have many cross over points or mutual frames of reference. We can't talk money, economic incentives, or zones of influence with a globalised non-state organisation with a fluid structure with no desire, indeed an ardent desire not to, enter into our economic system. I really do not see the point of talking to them. What could be achieved? What possible benefit could be extracted? They aren't a Government and they don't speak for a coherent group of people (such as an ethnic, national, or confessional group).

Sir Hugh Orde may talk about levels of "pragmatism" as these certainly existed within the IRA, as history has demonstrated, but I just don't see these in AQI. Having a chat, offering them cash, pledging to remove troops from Iraq would not limit any security threat. It would be without point and quite possibly damaging.

6 comments:

Jeb Koogler said...

James -

I'm not settled on the answer to this question, but you could argue hypothetically that governments should have an open door policy of dialogue. In other words, they don't restrict discussions with anyone.

The worst thing that could happen in this type of arrangement is that no agreement would come about. The best thing, on the other hand, particularly in talking with a group like AQ, is that both sides would better understand each other's perspectives. I don't really see the benefits of refusing to engage with anyone, frankly. It seems like it just helps to perpetuate misinformation and dehumanization.

James Schneider said...

Jeb, I take your point an of course we shouldn't fully close the door. However, understanding each others perspectives is highly unlikely to emerge from talks between Gordon Brown, Dave Miliband or whoever and Bin Laden or more likely Zawahiri. The worst case scenario is not no agreement. A PR coup for AQI is. I believe that would be likely. I find it odd to be arguing the conservative line here but I can really see no benefit at all. We can see through the misinformation if we want. Its not like OBL has never met a westerner before and its not like nobody's ever met him. I think we do understand where he is coming from and there is zero possibility of AQI striking up a working rapour with the UK government. What would it be over? What's the bargain? You stop planning attacks against us, which you don't really control anyway, and we'll do what? Leave Afghanistan? Leave Iraq? Not allow Turkey into the EU? Withdraw support for Israel? Cease to trade with Saudi Arabia? I mean what can we honestly offer them? They know this. Anyway, its not like the AQI leadership controls the diverse and complex jihadist movement worldwide. Even if miraculously we struck a deal with OBL its not as if somebody else would not fill his place. How many operations does the actual leadership plan? Will a lietenant in, say, Germany really stand down because OBL says so? I'm not sure that'll be the case. I'm afraid its a fools errand. The whole exercise is so that the British government can seem more "moderate" and distance itself from the "war on terror". Its not a policy, its a soundbite.

Alasdair W said...

I think it could happen in the future under changed circumstances. That would probably be like 20 years away.

Lee Griffin said...

I can't help but feel it is a case of double standards you're applying here. I don't believe there were too many people that thought talking to the IRA was a good idea while they were blowing up canary warf and manchester city center. Just because you're talking doesn't mean you let down your guard, but it does mean you treat and accept others as people with differing points of view...it doesn't have to legitimise anything which I feel is the government's main fear.

James Schneider said...

Alasdair, changed circumstances being? Call me a skeptic but I just don't see it.

James Schneider said...

Lee, I doubt think dialogue is akin to letting your guard down. The difference between the IRA and AQI, and the reason why its not double standards is because we had something the IRA could settle for, and we had levers to pull. We just don't have anything to offer AQI. Possibly in the future we would be able to offer them some control of Pashtun areas and free reign to attack the monarchy of Saudi arabia, the pharoah of Egypt, and the State of Israel. A lot will have had to change for that to happen. It will be morally repellent and probably, in fact definitely would not increase our, or anyone else's security. Talk to people you can bargain with. Talk to Iran, like yesterday. Israel should have taken Halevi's advice while they could and spoken to Hamas. March 14th shouldn't have totally rejected Hezbollah. AQI is different. There is no gain. We are not operating in either the same field of thought or the same realm of geo-politics or economics. As such we have no hand to play, so there's no point being at the table.